The panel discussion held by Meghnad Desai Academy was to know whether India is still on track to be a 5 trillion dollar economy by 2024? The panel had prominent speakers such as Mr. Shantanu Sengupta, Mr. Mahesh Vyas, Dr. Tirthankar Patnaik and Dr. Niranjan Rajadhyaksha as the moderator. The panel spoke about three essential pointers that lead to growth in GDP, which are consumption, investments, and exports. Consumption: Consumption in India is 60% of GDP. Accordingly, we can say that we are majorly dependent on consumption. In the past, consumption has had consistent growth, but it has started to decline in the last few quarters. 2004 to 2015 was a phase where there was high growth in consumption and inflation. Due to inflation growth, the real income of an average Indian did not grow. Urban and rural consumption has both dipped from 8% to 3% in the last few quarters. The panel is optimistic that consumption growth will pull back up as consumption depends on the sentiments of the people of India. Considering consumption has the largest share in GDP, it will play a significant role in making India reach the 5 trillion dollar economy mark. Investments: Why have things gone wrong with investments in India? -Investments have slowed down. -Income in India is not growing. If the people in the economy do not invest, no jobs will be created, which will lead to low incomes. Investments were growing between 2008 and 2009, but they declined remarkably by 2011-2012. The decrease in consumption dropped the asset utilization ratio; demotivated companies reduced investments; this also affected the NPAs as...

Guest Lecture – Mumbai

The Role of Data Analytics in Economics Why do economists work with data? To test evidence for/ against existing economic theories- For example, what is the evidence for the existence of the Philip’s curve in India in the last ten years? Or, how elastic is demand for fruits in Crawford market to changes in their prices, keeping everything else constant? To evaluate economic policies- As economists, we are ultimately interested in influencing people’s economic lives, which can be done by implementing the right policies. Economists are hence interested in testing how various economic policies work. This requires collecting the relevant data, testing them and presenting evidence for or against a certain economic policy. To forecast- As economists, we are interested in forecasting or predicting the future economic scenario. Such predictions are made based on available data and fitting appropriate statistical models on them. Methods of data collection– There are multiple ways of collecting the relevant data. The statistical models that we run can be based on secondary data (such as data collected from the World Bank, RBI, national household surveys, etc.) or primary data collected through surveys or field experiments (Randomized Control Trials) What do economists do with the data? Run statistical models to make sense of the data- For example, on the data collected on prices and demand for footwear, we can test how sensitive demand is to changes in prices by running a simple regression model. For the specific task of forecasting economic phenomena, economists generally use time series data; for instance, we can forecast GDP for India two quarters from now, based on regressions of GDP...

Guest Lectures – Bangalore

A graduate of Presidency College, Kolkata, and JNU, Delhi, Prof. Mukherjee has completed his PhD at Georgia State University’s Andrew Young School of Policy Studies in Atlanta, USA. Prof. Mukherjee’s research interests are in the fields of development economics, behavioral and experimental economics and public policy. Besides his primary position at the Academy, he is also a Fellow at the University of Mumbai and an Affiliated faculty at the Centre for Experimental Social Sciences, Nuffield College (University of Oxford) – FLAME University. Prof. Mukherjee has presented his work at the University of Chicago, George Mason University, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Washington D.C, Economic Science Association Meetings in Dallas, Western Economic Association International Conference in Tokyo and San Diego, Gender and Economics workshop in Glasgow, Scotland, Symposium on Economic Experiments in Developing Countries in Norwich, UK and Spanish Economic Association Meetings in Bilbao, among others. Prof. Shagata conducted guest lectures in colleges at Bangalore which included Christ College, St Joseph College, BR Ambedkar College and Mount Carmel College in November 2019. He spoke about : “What drives gender difference in trust and trustworthiness” How to evaluate Public Policy   “Are Women Really Better Borrowers in Microfinance?”   The Key Takeaways from his lectures are as follows: 1) “What drives gender difference in trust and trustworthiness” In this talk, Prof. Mukherjee examines the following question: Are women wired intrinsically to be more trusting and trustworthy than men or is it the social context in which men and women operate that influence their social behavior? Prof. Mukherjee addressed this question by presenting results from trust experiments that he had conducted with neighbouring matrilineal...

How to write a good abstract ?

An abstract is like a movie trailer . People will only consider reading the rest of the manuscript if they find your abstract interesting. Tips to write a good abstract : Introduce the problem statement : What problem are you trying to solve? What is the scope of your work (a generalized approach, or for a specific situation)? Be careful not to use too much jargon. Data and Methods used to present the research : How did you go about solving or making progress on the problem? Did you use simulation, analytic models, prototype construction, or analysis of field data for an actual product? Results and conclusion of the research : What’s the answer? Put the result there, in numbers. Avoid vague, hand-waving results such as “very”, “small”, or “significant.” If you must be vague, you are only given license to do so when you can talk about orders-of-magnitude improvement. Here are a few sample abstracts  Sample 1. Is inequality efficient or inefficient  The purpose of this paper is to establish the relationship between inequality and efficiency. This work aims at evaluating whether inequality is efficient or inefficient with the support of primary and secondary data. The term ‘Inequality’ is widespread and thus, has multiple types and definitions. However, this research focuses on a type of inequality that occurs on a smaller level amongst individuals but has a cumulative impact on the economy and the world as a whole. We label this inequality as ‘Socio- biological inequality’. This term can be defined as the unnatural imbalance created by society on the basis of biological dis-similarities between human beings. It is a...

Markets – October 26th – November 1st

International: The story dominating headlines through most of the week was that of a successful raid by the US military to kill the ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Trump unable to contain himself tweeted “Something very big has just happened!” in the early hours of Saturday morning, and went to make the major announcement on Sunday. The good news from the White House kept flowing in after Trump hinted at a near term partial trade agreement in China. Markets on Monday signalled a change in sentiment, which was further bolstered by stronger than expected earnings results. Monday saw the S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq and 10-year Treasury yield end in the green with gold falling 0.65%. Despite signs a possible agreement, China continued to flex its muscle, warning the US later in the week that criticism over the detention of Uighurs (an ethnic minority in the state) was not “helpful” to the talks. The Asian giant aware of the strength it holds will show no signs of bending to the US’s will, and we can expect friction between the two countries before a deal is hammered out. Oversees Britain’s actions seems to have given Brexit a new meaning, that of “The act of telling everyone at a gathering that you are leaving but staying”. Nonetheless, the news of the European Union agreeing to extend the Brexit deadline until January 31 (the departure date was previously set at 31st October) was taken positively by the markets with the pound strengthening as much as 1.286 against the dollar, with fears of a no-deal Brexit momentarily residing. Despite the good news the looming...
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